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An historic opportunity for political change in China


By Chin Jin, On Line opinion, Australia
February 12, 2009

From a perspective of world political systems, liberty is better than confinement, light is superior to darkness, democracy is superior to despotic rule. From a religious and cultural view, religion has historically cast a tremendously profound impact onto temporal politics, regardless of one’s opinion as to whether its effects are progressive or regressive.

The Islamic Revolution of Iran overthrew the Pahlavi Dynasty in 1979, and the immense prestige and influence of Pope John II accelerated the dissolution of the Communist Eastern Europe. Back in the East, Chinese autocracy may well meet its demise in the future, when Buddhism unleashes its innate empowerment - the individual's power to take a stand.

The key figure to trigger this change can be none other than the 14th Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Tibet.

China is a country which has been a welcoming host to the Buddhist legacy for almost 2,000 years. Nevertheless, traditional Chinese religious culture has endured an unprecedented and protracted catastrophe since the establishment of the People's Republic of China by the Chinese Communist Party.

Tibetan Buddhism, in contrast, was exempted from this by continuing to develop and flourish in exile in India for more than 50 years. There is no doubt that Tibetan Buddhism, which is currently headed by the leadership of the Dalai Lama, represents the highest divinity of the Buddhist world.

Generally, world trends are moving towards light and progress, but freak reversal tides still emerge to halt the progression of ethical advancement in our history. Last century communism and fascism plundered the lives of mankind on a horrendous scale. Fascism declined into dust after World War II, and some communist dictatorships were defeated. But an inferior cousin, the tyrannical clique of the Chinese Communist Party, is still standing in the East, clinging onto power in desperation.

The terrorist attack of 9-11 at the beginning of this century heralded a new world political landscape. The Western democratic world has been compelled to fight, simultaneously, on two battle fronts. The West has not only encountered the religious fundamentalists, the extremists and the terrorists that arose among the Arabic nations in the Middle East, but they must also face the Chinese Communist dictatorship reincarnated as nationalism.

The West is combating enemies in two directions, while many of the key leaders of the Western democratic world are repeating the practice of Chamberlain and Daladier's policy of appeasement. We do, however, have hopes that the Obama administration will change this approach.

It is extremely difficult for the West, headed by the US, to fight on two sides, and the West has its unique view of the future global political situation, in that the Western leaders are organised and united in their major approach, although the details and individual policies may differ.

The advocates for democratic movement within China, the democratic forces which represent China's future political progress, are too weak and scattered to form a robust political power to compete in the global arena. The reality is that the forces which represent the future direction of Chinese progress are not being paid due attention or being supported by the Western democratic society, even though this movement against in the Communist Party in China has simmered for more than 30 years.

The Chinese Communist dictatorship is the common enemy of many organisations who are concerned with the rights of the people: the Chinese democratic movement, the democracy of the Republic of China which has retreated to Taiwan; Free Tibet (which strives for meaningful autonomy); the Uighur people of Xinjiang province; and representatives of other ethnic nationalities within China.

However, we should also see the reason why Western capitalists were so keen on China, and that is the Chinese double digit economic annual growth for the past 30 years. It has been profitable to invest in China. Furthermore, because of the prevalence of a New Appeasement, many Western political leaders have an illusion about the nature of Chinese communists. Westerners have double standards, dealing with them in a different way to, for example the former USSR. This is implemented at the expense of moral obligation and fundamental principles.

The West has needed Communist China's co-operation in the war on terror. Therefore the international environment seems benign to Chinese communists, and this situation is still showing no sign of changing in the short term.

However, the international economic environment can be fickle. The Chinese economy can hardly bloom in the midst of a global economic downturn. It has been predicted by observers and analysts that the China economic fantasy will disintegrate rapidly when Chinese annual economic growth is lower than 8 per cent. All kinds of social, moral and environmental problems will arise. Since China cannot be immune from the global economic tsunami and the time will soon come when the Chinese communist regime's power base is shaken and thrown into flux.

2009 is crucial year. 2009 is the Chinese Communist Party's 60th anniversary of the establishment of its rule. 2009 is the 60th year after the exodus of the Republic of China to Taiwan. 2009 is the 50th anniversary for the Tibetan spiritual leader and his people's exile in India. 2009 is also the 20th anniversary for the 1989 Chinese Democratic Movement.

Public resentment is simmering in today’s China, and the antagonism between the people and the government appointed officials is building into a seething resentment. The proclamation of the “08 Charter” is similar to the signature of 33 at the beginning of 1989. Any subtle change could tip the balance and become the catalyst to make 2009 the year of an historic shift in China. All political powers can prepare for a bid against the Chinese Communist Party.

The Chinese communist regime still has a strong foothold in the international political arena. Western democracies tolerated the Chinese Communists because of their own national and economic interests, and Communist China took the chance to effectively divide and overpower the ethical and legal arguments of the Western democracies. However, the domestic situation has become more and more severe for the Chinese Communists. They will continue to calmly and brutally suppress, detain and execute the seething civil resentment as long as their internationally illegal activities go unaddressed by external international powers.

The urgent need is there for the Chinese make a start at resolving the conflicts and problems which lie so deeply within their society. Today's civilian unrest has been exacerbated by the economic crisis. The major risk to the CCP is that even moderate social conflicts will be activated by this economic crisis. This has already been identified and documented by intellectuals and astute thinkers in mainland China. The Chinese economy will inevitably face serious crises, which have already caused economic havoc in regions spreading from the Zhujiang River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta.

This truly provides an historic opportunity for political change in China. That is, the choice to continue the policy of criminal repression of its citizens, and therefore agitate and pour oil on the furnace of anger and growing resentment, or to take a more stable long term approach, by developing more ethical policies to diffuse the mounting social dissent.

It is also a matter of perception as to whether the CCP sees this as a threat, or as the final opportunity to start walking the long road of rebuilding a very tarnished national and international reputation, and to evolve into a globally respected leadership. The latter can only be done if major steps are taken towards the introduction of political democracy.

There is a very long way to go.

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