In a surprise move, judges Thaung Nyunt and Nyi Nyi Soe have adjourned the trial of Burmese opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi for violating the terms of her house arrest. A decision is now scheduled for August 11, three days after the 21st anniversary of Burma’s 8888 uprising in which 3,000 peaceful protestors were killed by the military. The Lady, as Daw Suu is known in Burma, has spent 14 of the last 20 years under house arrest for politely urging the Generals of the State Peace and Development Council to allow freedom and democracy to come to Burma.

The whole world has been watching, waiting to see what the military monsters who run Burma would do to Daw Suu, the Nobel Peace laureate. Just as she was due to finish her most recent five years of house arrest, a strange American, John Yettaw, swam across the lake to her house. Even though Daw Suu urged him to leave, he claimed he could not make the return swim. Two evenings later, when he swam back, he was arrested. On May 14, 2009 Daw Suu was arrested, along with two opposition party aides, for violating the terms of her house arrest and put in the notorious Insein Prison.

Her trial has been held in fits and starts since Daw Suu’s arrest. Most everyone feels that a guilty verdict is a foregone conclusion. Yet Daw Suu’s lawyer, Nyan Win, has spoken to the media in ways that make it sound as though the trial has not been a fake. Either way, the proceedings have been anything but transparent: select foreign diplomats have been allowed to attend the trial, while journalists have been completely banned.
The high-profile trial has garnered much global attention and has provided a chance for the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to make a modest opening to the West. So far, however, the Generals have demonstrated a total disregard for the opinions of most of the world’s democracies.

If history is any indication, and if, as expected, Daw Suu is convicted, she may face a very stiff sentence. Over the last year, sentencing of the main activists in the 2007 Saffron Revolution has been brutal. Sentences of 65 years for peaceful demonstrating have been common.

Also working against Daw Suu is the fact that there is no independent judiciary in Burma and little semblance of an independent bar. Just last fall, Judge Thaung Nyunt, one of the judges in Daw Suu’s trial, sentenced a young lawyer to six months in jail for being too active in the defence of his clients. No information is available on the Internet about Judge Nyi Nyi Soe.

So what can be done? How can the world community come to the aid of Daw Suu and the long-suffering people of Burma?

Almost all Western countries have severe economic sanctions on Burma. For years the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) has tried constructive engagement with the Generals but all of the ASEAN countries allow their citizens and corporations to invest in businesses in Burma.

Sanctions and constructive engagement have been to no avail; the Generals continue to show no interest in peace, freedom, or democracy for Burma.

The main support for the dictators in Burma is China. India and China are both interested in the energy supplies in the country. India to its shame remains quiet on the injustices wrought by the Burmese junta, but it’s China that has done the most to maintain the status quo. Vetoes by China at the Security Council have protected the Generals. Meanwhile, the country has sold billions of dollars of military supplies to Burma. (Though it has no external enemies, Burma maintains an army of in excess of 400,000, the largest in South East Asia.)

The most effective way to bring change to Burma would be an intervention by the government of China. But to expect China to act is a pipe dream. The government regards the situation in Burma as an internal matter, the exclusive business of Burma. This is also China’s position on the situation in Darfur and Sudan. The government of China does not want the international community speaking out on the country’s treatment of the Tibetans and the Uighurs, nor does it want interference in its dealing with Taiwan.

Another development that could affect the future of the Burmese junta is the possibility of an international investigation of human rights abuses by the Generals. There has even been talk of charges being laid at the International Criminal Court against General Than Shwe and the other generals in Burma for rape, murder, and other abuses. Such steps would be useful, but no match for the potential power of Chinese intervention. Unless China ceases its absolute support for the SPDC, there will be no significant change in Burma.

It would take little action by China to shake the junta. Sending the Chinese Ambassador to Burma to have tea with Daw Suu would be enough to stir the Generals from what is now a seemingly well-founded confidence that things will go their way forever.

Free Burma will be holding an event in Toronto on Saturday, August 8, in commemoration of the 21st anniversary of Burma’s Nationwide Democracy Uprising (8888). The event will begin at 6 p.m., in front of The Royal Theatre (608 College Street, near Clinton), and will include a screening of the film Burma VJ: Reporting From a Closed Country.