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David Jones . Lessons for Republicans


By David Jones, Ottawa Citizen
November 07, 2008

This was always the Democrats' year to win -- and they did.

To be fair, if Democrats had lost, they wouldn't qualify as a political party. They had a scare in September when the McCain-Palin personal legends provided a domestic Surge, but the Democrats opened their coffers and kept their cool while the media (and the economy) hammered the Republicans.

Frankly, with the history of two-term rotation, the most unpopular incumbent in living memory, a grinding and unnecessary Iraq war, and the worst economic crisis in two generations, not even a "Second Coming" endorsement could have saved the Republicans. (God would have been denounced for interfering in temporal affairs.)

That said, and appreciated, there are still lessons to be drawn for the Republicans.

First, Republicans are to blame. Get used to it. With partisan Democrats controlling the executive branch and Congress, Republicans are the goats to be scaped. For the indefinite future -- and certainly as long as Democrats can play the game -- every economic, political, social, environmental problem will be the fault of the (supply your expletive) Republicans. The Democrats ran against Hoover for more than 20 years; they will do the same to "Dubya."

It is possible that the current economic recession will persist, despite the wide array of financial tools being employed domestically and internationally and the brilliance of the tool handlers. But they thought they were so smart in 1929 -- and the Depression didn't really end until the Second World War. So as long as it continues, the Republicans will be blamed.

And, if the recession is relatively short and shallow, the Democrats will claim credit for "turning things around." And the spin will seek to prevent Republicans from regaining power to screw things up again.

The history books may share the blame more equitably; but history is a long time coming and Republicans can't count on it. So:

- No more old war heroes.

Three times in the past 20 years, the Republicans have run old war heroes. They all lost. To be sure Bush 41 (the youngest U.S. naval aviator in the Second World War) won Ronald Reagan's third term, but running on his own in 1992, he was defeated after orchestrating the expulsion of Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Then Robert Dole, a Second World War veteran handicapped by combat wounds, was defeated in 1996. And most recently, John McCain, whose personal heroism in a Vietnamese PoW camp and commitment to America are compelling, was beaten.

Americans respect their military and their veterans -- but these old men made them uncomfortable in an era where foreign challenge is ambiguous. The Democrats have learned this lesson; they haven't run a winning warrior since JFK.

- Recruit more women and minorities.

It was embarrassing to see the 2008 array of Republican presidential candidates: an assortment of white-bread males with nary a female (not even of the token Libby Dole type) to be seen. There were attractive and personable female senators (Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine; Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas) and governors (Linda Lingle of Hawaii and Jodi Rell of Connecticut). The invisibility of visible minorities could be alleviated by Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.

None of these are likely to crack the Democrats' strangle-hold on African- or Hispanic-Americans; however, they will demonstrate that minority and female Republicans are not incipient suicides.

- But Sarah Palin is not the answer.

Unfortunately for Republicans, Ms. Palin leads back into the Goldwater ghetto of small tent, angry conservatives. It is possible Republicans will conclude that Mr. Obama is unbeatable in 2012 and run Ms. Palin as a "forlorn hope" if only to pound it home to axiomatic fundamentalists that Republicans must move beyond guns and God if they wish to govern again. Or wait 20 years for the Democrats to comprehensively foul their nests.

- And clean up their act.

Republicans controlled Congress for more than a decade before 2006. Unfortunately, the increasing impression was that they had both feet in the trough with trousers unzipped. Senator Ted Stevens, recently convicted of ethics violations, was just the last plank in a bridge to oblivion. Even appreciating the reality of "gotcha" journalism and that politicians are human, Republicans badly need a clean-as-a-hound's-tooth image.

Still there is comfort that in a democracy, the day of victory is the first on the path to defeat. And the day of defeat is the first on the road to victory.

David Jones, co-author of Uneasy Neighbo(u)rs: Canada, the USA and the Dynamics of State, Industry and Culture, is a former U.S. diplomat who served in Ottawa. He now lives in Arlington, Virginia.

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