WASHINGTON, D.C.—To be sure, that circumstance is not significantly
different from the Washington norm, but if herds of rabid reindeer
driven by militant
vegetarians were munching their way south, they would not be noticed until
breaching Homeland Security regulations at the border.
Thus, in a Washington totally consumed by the combination of gut-wrenching
economic issues and panting plaudits for an incoming administration poised to
turn water into wine by walking on it, the prospect for the most stunning
Canadian political development in living memory gets minor mention in
page A-14
of The Washington Post on Dec. 2. What little intellectual energy remains
for foreign affairs is absorbed by the arguably more immediate crises in the
South Asian subcontinent, countering pirates off the Somali coast, and trying
to keep lids on the Iran, Iraq, and Afghan bubbling pots—at least through the
holiday season.
That Amcits could awaken shortly to find a new government running Canada
without benefit of election would be met with a shoulder shrug "huh."
The Bush
presidency is in death rattle days; its final gasp will likely be a spate of
controversialpardons.
Nor will president-elect Barack Obama have any special concerns—assuming he
now appreciates that Canada has a Prime Minister rather than a president and
that its Senators are not elected. It might delay the ritual visits by
U.S.-Canadian leadership to each others' respective capitals, but others could
well conclude that a Liberal-led government (regardless of how constructed or
sustained) would be a more collegial partner than Conservatives of any ilk.
Certainly there are Democratic activists who believe that the Canadian
government sympathized with Senator John McCain, as epitomized by
meeting with him
(albeit at muted levels) when he visited Ottawa on June 20, and maliciously
leaked an Obama economic adviser's privileged comments that the Senator's
professions of a NAFTA review were campaign rhetoric. Moreover, the
overwhelming majority of Canadians, who didn't vote Tory on Oct. 14,
endorsed Obama
(and thus Democrats could happily rationalize that a Liberal/NDP/Bloc
government reflects "majority rule.")
To be sure, the political millennium may not arrive in 2009. The new
coalition might declare victory, having forced Harper to retreat
ignominiously on
political party funding and limits on strikes by public employees. With such
an approach, they get the "game" without the blame—a satisfying victory with
the ability to pull the trigger on the government at any later moment and
not take the chance of a winter election within three months of the last
unpleasantness.
Conversely, there are a variety of bureaucratic/legislative manoeuvres open
to the Prime Minister. Harper may prorogue Parliament (with the GG's
consent) permitting him extra time both to rally public opinion and prepare a
pump-priming budget for January release. During this period, the
inherent tensions
in a Liberal/NDP/Bloc alliance may fracture over questions about who gets
what position and which policies will be promoted (and which deferred).
Finally, needing 154 votes in a 308 member Parliament (with the
Liberal House leader
not eligible to vote), Harper must pick up 11 to sustain his government.
That is a difficult but not impossible task, starting with the two
independents, and including various "blue Liberals" who might be
queasy both with the
composition of the Alliance and the prospect that this "throw yourself off the
cliff without a parachute" manoeuvre could result in a punish the-SOBs
popular response in a chaotic election. We do not know how many
Belinda Stronach
equivalents may be in the woodwork interested in a beneficial offer (or just
willing to stay home with the political equivalent of a "diplomatic illness."
)
Nevertheless, the triumvirate may triumph—with an acquiescent Governor
General rejecting a Tory call for election. Such legislative
manoeuvres are the
warp and woof of global Parliamentary practice where constructing a coalition
can take more time than the election campaign—and winning a plurality of
seats is only the starting point for those seeking to govern. Indeed,
proponents might argue that the opposition has only come to
appreciate new political
realities and found mechanisms to bridge the tyranny of small (and large)
differences to obtain the objective of politics: the power to govern.
In that regard, U.S. attitudes would be an issue-by-issue. Will a
Liberal/NDP coalition accelerate Canada's Afghan withdrawal? Seek a
NAFTA review?
Demand immediate return (without a U.S. trial) of Omar Khadr? Impose
energy/environmental restrictions limiting Alberta oil sands
development/export?
Canada may be poised to engage with the Chinese curse "May you live in
interesting times."