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China, Wolf in Olympic Clothing, Needs Smooth Games: Interview


By Paul George, Bloomberg
August 05, 2008

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- When George Walden was a U.K. diplomat in China during the Cultural Revolution, he witnessed people being ``carted away in the streets to be shot in the back of the neck,'' he says.

Now, days before the Beijing Olympics are to open, Walden says it's important to remember how far China has come in the past 30 years -- and how far it still needs to go before becoming a democracy. With the communist authorities on edge and world markets in turmoil, it's vital for the Games to succeed, he says.

Paul George spoke with Walden in Bloomberg's London offices about his new book, ``China: A Wolf in the World?'' Walden, a former member of the U.K. Parliament, reviews books for Bloomberg News.

George: It's difficult to overestimate how important the Games are for China, isn't it?

Walden: For the Chinese, the Games are massively politicized from the start, and you can understand it when you think about what they've accomplished in 30 years.

We need perspective on this. I was there during the Cultural Revolution, and I watched people being carted away in the streets to be shot in the back of the neck. About 3 million people died. I've been back often since, and each time there is a sort of incremental freedom, though sometimes it moves backward.

At the moment, they're nervous. They're arresting more people and journalists are complaining because they can't use the Internet in the way they're accustomed to. I understand all that. But if ever we needed a sense of perspective -- particularly with the current financial situation in the West -- it's now. And basically, it's not in our interest for these Games to fail.

Murderous Failure

George: You posit in this book that the effects of the Cultural Revolution aren't entirely washed out of China.

Walden: No, because the whole thing was such a ghastly and catastrophic and murderous failure that it left China with no moral sense. People who go to China do notice that all the Chinese can believe in, really, is making money.

Now, politics are creeping in, and with a bit of pressure from the West -- which I think we must maintain -- freedom is gradually growing. We must never forget that. It's getting much better, year by year. But there's a hell of a long way to go. Personally, I don't think China will become a fully fledged democratic system anytime soon.

George: You don't?

`Leninist Overcast'

Walden: No. Some people will say, ``Well, of course it's only a matter of time before they must set up a democratic system.'' Fine, I'm all in favor of that. And it's important to remember that what's going on in China now is unprecedented in the history of the world: an extreme leftist regime switching overnight to a laissez-faire capitalist regime, with a Leninist overcast.

But imagine that the Games go wrong. What would it mean? A huge humiliation for China. Internal repercussions. Maybe a surge toward democracy -- who knows? I rather doubt it.

I think that if they go wrong, there will be a nationalistic backlash. The Chinese people will swallow the government's line that this is somehow the West's machinations. And we could all lose out -- not least financially.

George: It's a pretty scary cover you've got on this book, ``China: A Wolf in the World?'' Why a wolf?

Walden: Well, a book -- quite a scary book -- was published in China recently, and its motif was the wolf. It's a novel called ``Wolf Totem,'' and the Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army are encouraging people to buy it.

Be Wolves

The message of this book is that the Chinese in the past under Confucius and under Mao behaved too much like sheep. And now is the time for them to be more wolfish. ``Wolf Totem'' has sold umpteen million copies.

That's the slightly worrying side of the future: What is this country going to do with this huge power? Is it going to be a wolf in the world? Not in terms of invading countries, but in terms of being extremely tough financially.

I suspect that they will be very tough, not least because we, the West, exploited them -- Britain in particular but others too - - in the 19th century. They were humiliated and they haven't forgotten.

``China: A Wolf in the World?'' is published by Gibson Square in the U.K. (304 pages, 14.99 pounds).

(This interview was adapted from a longer conversation with Paul George, who hosts the European edition of the Money and Politics program on Bloomberg Television.)

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