Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- When George Walden was a U.K. diplomat
in China during the Cultural Revolution, he witnessed people being
``carted away in the streets to be shot in the back of the neck,''
he says.
Now, days before the Beijing Olympics are to open, Walden
says it's important to remember how far China has come in the past
30 years -- and how far it still needs to go before becoming a
democracy. With the communist authorities on edge and world
markets in turmoil, it's vital for the Games to succeed, he says.
Paul George spoke with Walden in Bloomberg's London offices
about his new book, ``China: A Wolf in the World?'' Walden, a
former member of the U.K. Parliament, reviews books for Bloomberg
News.
George: It's difficult to overestimate how important the
Games are for China, isn't it?
Walden: For the Chinese, the Games are massively politicized
from the start, and you can understand it when you think about
what they've accomplished in 30 years.
We need perspective on this. I was there during the Cultural
Revolution, and I watched people being carted away in the streets
to be shot in the back of the neck. About 3 million people died.
I've been back often since, and each time there is a sort of
incremental freedom, though sometimes it moves backward.
At the moment, they're nervous. They're arresting more people
and journalists are complaining because they can't use the
Internet in the way they're accustomed to. I understand all that.
But if ever we needed a sense of perspective -- particularly with
the current financial situation in the West -- it's now. And
basically, it's not in our interest for these Games to fail.
Murderous Failure
George: You posit in this book that the effects of the
Cultural Revolution aren't entirely washed out of China.
Walden: No, because the whole thing was such a ghastly and
catastrophic and murderous failure that it left China with no
moral sense. People who go to China do notice that all the Chinese
can believe in, really, is making money.
Now, politics are creeping in, and with a bit of pressure
from the West -- which I think we must maintain -- freedom is
gradually growing. We must never forget that. It's getting much
better, year by year. But there's a hell of a long way to go.
Personally, I don't think China will become a fully fledged
democratic system anytime soon.
George: You don't?
`Leninist Overcast'
Walden: No. Some people will say, ``Well, of course it's only
a matter of time before they must set up a democratic system.''
Fine, I'm all in favor of that. And it's important to remember
that what's going on in China now is unprecedented in the history
of the world: an extreme leftist regime switching overnight to a
laissez-faire capitalist regime, with a Leninist overcast.
But imagine that the Games go wrong. What would it mean? A
huge humiliation for China. Internal repercussions. Maybe a surge
toward democracy -- who knows? I rather doubt it.
I think that if they go wrong, there will be a nationalistic
backlash. The Chinese people will swallow the government's line
that this is somehow the West's machinations. And we could all
lose out -- not least financially.
George: It's a pretty scary cover you've got on this book,
``China: A Wolf in the World?'' Why a wolf?
Walden: Well, a book -- quite a scary book -- was published
in China recently, and its motif was the wolf. It's a novel called
``Wolf Totem,'' and the Communist Party and the People's
Liberation Army are encouraging people to buy it.
Be Wolves
The message of this book is that the Chinese in the past
under Confucius and under Mao behaved too much like sheep. And now
is the time for them to be more wolfish. ``Wolf Totem'' has sold
umpteen million copies.
That's the slightly worrying side of the future: What is this
country going to do with this huge power? Is it going to be a wolf
in the world? Not in terms of invading countries, but in terms of
being extremely tough financially.
I suspect that they will be very tough, not least because we,
the West, exploited them -- Britain in particular but others too -
- in the 19th century. They were humiliated and they haven't
forgotten.
``China: A Wolf in the World?'' is published by Gibson Square
in the U.K. (304 pages, 14.99 pounds).
(This interview was adapted from a longer conversation with
Paul George, who hosts the European edition of the Money and
Politics program on Bloomberg Television.)