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The junta's enablers: Thailand, India, China

The junta's enablers: Thailand, India, China

By GEOFFREY YORK, From Saturday's Globe and Mail
October 6, 2007

MAE SOT, THAILAND — The small band of protesters had just begun to pray for peace when the soldiers attacked.

Charging into the crowd, the soldiers grabbed a stack of protest leaflets and flung them to the ground. Then the undercover agents swung into action, arresting the protest leaders and bundling them into a prison van, under the menacing presence of an armoured jeep with a machine-gun mounted on top.

This heavy-handed assault on Myanmar activists was launched not in Myanmar itself, but just across the border, in Thailand.

While the world was mesmerized by televised images of soldiers attacking peaceful protesters in Rangoon, the military regime in neighbouring Thailand was in the midst of its own crackdown on protesters from Myanmar, without any attention from the outside world.

The harsh reaction in Thailand is one of the keys to understanding why Myanmar's military junta was able to crush the protests by the red-robed monks who were marching for democracy last month.

Exiles from Myanmar, also known as Burma, have made three attempts to hold protests in support of the monks in Mae Sot, a Thai border town, over the past 10 days. Each attempt was tightly controlled or suppressed by Thai security and military forces. Dozens of protesters were detained and deported to Myanmar, facing an even worse fate if caught.

By cracking down on its own Myanmar protesters, Thailand is seeking to ensure a smooth relationship with the neighbouring junta. That smooth relationship is worth billions of dollars in trade and investment opportunities for Thai businesses and the Thai government.

Thailand's economic relationship with Myanmar has been vital in propping up the military junta. Thailand, China and India, the three most important states on Myanmar's borders, have provided the economic lifeline that keeps the junta afloat, allowing it to defy the sanctions imposed by Western governments.

All three of these countries expressed concern about the bloody suppression of the peaceful protests in Rangoon last week. But none of the three front-line states has taken any concrete steps to punish the regime for killing and arresting the monks and other protesters.

A close examination of the words and deeds of the three countries suggests that they are willing to tolerate Myanmar's military regime. And their economic connections with Myanmar suggest that all three are profiting financially and strategically from their relationship with the junta.

The front-line Asian states, with their booming economies and rising political power, have served as a profitable replacement for the Western states that have largely disengaged from Myanmar for human rights reasons. Surrounded by fast-growing Asian neighbours, Myanmar has been able to ignore the limited sanctions imposed by Western governments.

Thailand, which rivals China as the biggest foreign investor in Myanmar, has officially criticized the junta for its attacks on the monks. But at the same time it depends heavily on Myanmar for the natural gas that fuels the Thai economy. About 20 per cent of Thailand's electricity is generated by natural gas from Myanmar. The junta collects more than $2-billion annually from Thailand for these natural gas exports, the single biggest source of revenue for the junta.

Thailand is also building hydro dams in Myanmar, offering further billions to the regime and increasing Thailand's reliance on the Myanmar relationship. And Thai traders are enjoying a booming business in importing rubies and other gems from Myanmar, while selling a vast range of consumer goods there.

Despite its official statements of concern about the military crackdown, Thailand often sounds sympathetic to the junta. Thailand's military leaders, who seized power in Bangkok in a coup last year, have hinted that Myanmar's junta was unfairly provoked by the protesting monks. Its business leaders have expressed concern that the protests could lead to border closures, hurting Thai traders. And the government has talked of the need for “peace and stability” in Myanmar, rather than democracy or human rights.

China, similarly, has responded to the Myanmar crisis with vague rhetoric about the need for “restraint” by all sides, including the monks. It has a long history of economic and military deals with the Myanmar junta, and it clearly sees Myanmar as a key source of secure energy supplies and useful military assets, including naval bases on the Indian Ocean.

China has been Myanmar's biggest arms supplier since 1988, providing more than $1.4-billion in Chinese weapons to the junta. It has also vetoed UN Security Council resolutions calling for democratic reforms in Myanmar. It does about $1.1-billion in annual trade with Myanmar – a huge amount in comparison to Myanmar's GDP of only $9.6-billion.

In exchange for this, China has won the rights to dozens of energy projects in Myanmar, including hydro projects, oil and gas developments, and a $2-billion oil pipeline that will allow China to receive Middle East oil shipments without depending on the Strait of Malacca, which is vulnerable to blockage. It's a pipeline of huge strategic importance to China.

China has also won access to some of Myanmar's naval ports on the Indian Ocean, and through the junta it has gained a useful source of military intelligence on its southern flank.

India, the third of the key front-line states, has been equally supportive of the Myanmar regime. It has become a major supplier of weapons to Myanmar, and it is competing with China for the right to develop energy projects in the country. Even as the Myanmar army was preparing to attack the protesting monks last week, India's oil minister was visiting Myanmar to sign a series of oil and gas exploration contracts.

And after the brutal crackdown on the protesters, India's army chief said the bloodshed was “an internal matter” for Myanmar to decide. He emphasized that India has a “good relationship” with the junta.

Across Asia, other countries have lent support to Myanmar, too. Japan is the biggest source of development assistance to Myanmar, providing about $25-million to the country last year. Singapore has been helpful to the regime, giving training to Myanmar's intelligence agents and providing bank accounts for the regime's top generals and business cronies.

Another key player is ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Nations, which includes Thailand and other nations. In one of the few strong responses from any Asian source, ASEAN expressed its “revulsion” at the military crackdown in Myanmar. But it has yet to take any concrete action, and allowed the regime to join the association in 1997, a move that gave valuable legitimacy to the junta at the time.

In the face of these powerful links, it can be almost impossible for ordinary Myanmar exiles to dissent. In the border town of Mae Sot, about 100 exiles gathered outside a United Nations office last Sunday to voice their support for the monks in Rangoon – but they were met by 10 soldiers, three police vehicles, an armoured jeep, a police prison van and a contingent of police officers and undercover security agents.

After the soldiers charged into the crowd and threw away the protest leaflets, the security agents arrested five protesters. “You are troublemakers, stirring up the Burmese workers in Thailand,” one security agent told a protester as he held him in custody in a police prison bus.

The agents did not bother to identify themselves. “We had no idea who had arrested us,” said Joe, a 25-year-old migrant worker from Myanmar, one of the five men arrested. “I was very worried. I had no idea what would happen to us.”

After a night in a police cell, Joe and the other protesters were deported across the border to Myanmar, which could have been highly dangerous for them. “Luckily there weren't many people who noticed us,” he said. “We managed to cross back to Thailand with a group of people.”

Three days earlier, a group of 200 exiles tried to hold a candle-lighting ceremony at the border on the Moei River, within sight of Myanmar, to honour the monks who were killed in Rangoon. But they were confronted by dozens of soldiers and policemen who arrested 30 of the protesters and deported them to Myanmar.

Finally, on Tuesday this week, the exiles were able to hold a ceremony at a Buddhist monastery in the border town, without any arrests. But they were watched closely by police, soldiers and undercover agents. Local authorities warned the monastery to limit the ceremony to 20 minutes, with no political slogans, no posters, no signs, no leaflets, no applauding and no singing. Several monks refused to speak at the ceremony for fear that they could be identified by Myanmar agents.

The exiles have no doubt of the reason for the crackdown on their protests. They see the thriving trade between Mae Sot and the nearest Myanmar town, they watch the traders going back and forth, and they know the authorities want to avoid any conflict that might lead to a shutdown of the bridge over the border on the Moei River.

“The Thai businessmen here are very dependent on the Myanmar market,” said Kamma Kuthala, a monk of Myanmar origin who led the ceremony at the monastery this week.

“If Myanmar got angry at Thailand and closed the border even for a day, it would hurt them a lot. And the authorities here are concerned only about profits and benefits.”

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