The attention of Burmese democracy activists was focused on Singapore this week as the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN)* met for the first time since the violent reprisals against monks and nuns in September. But hopes that the heads of the ASEAN states would use their economic and political muscle to promote democratic change in Burma were dashed.
UN Special Envoy Ibraham Gambari, who has visited Burma four times since the uprising, was scheduled to address the summit but was unceremoniously dropped from the official agenda after complaints were lodged by Prime Minister Thein Sein of Burma's ruling military junta. Despite considerable international pressure on the ASEAN to deal firmly with Burma through political and economic sanctions, the issue was effectively sidelined.
That the ASEAN chose not to intervene in the political and human rights crisis in Burma is disappointing but not surprising. A number of ASEAN members are hardly paragons of democracy in their own right and confronting Burma would raise some uncomfortable flags. Moreover, the ASEAN meeting aimed to celebrate its 40 th anniversary by announcing a timetable to establish the region as an integrated economic bloc, and the leaders had no intention of allowing international concerns about Burma to obstruct this agenda.
Most importantly, ASEAN members have enormous economic interests in Burma. While international attention has focused on the economic interests of China and India in Burma, Singapore and Thailand currently account for 98 percent of all new foreign investment in the country. Trade between and Burma and Singapore is now valued at about US$1 billion annually. Thailand provides more than 40 percent of Burma's foreign exchange earnings through its energy imports. Thailand's largest oil exploration firm, in partnership with a Malaysian company, announced last week that it would invest at least US$1 billion in Burma over the next five years to develop an offshore gas project.
It is these economic interests that are at stake within the ASEAN, and apparently they trump concerns about democracy and human rights. The Burma problem was set aside as the ASEAN leaders signed a charter making the grouping of countries a legal entity, while pledging to establish a regional human rights body sometime in the future.
The UN's attempt to mediate between the military junta and Burma's democracy movement led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi also appears to be foundering. Many observers feel that the junta allowed Special Envoy Gambari and the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights, Paulo Pinheiro, to visit the country as a delaying tactic while the regime presses forward with its own plan for political reform. At the same time the regime was hosting Mr. Gambari, it abruptly kicked the resident UN representative in Rangoon out of the country.
The UN was bluntly denounced in the state-run media a week ago by Burma 's Information Minister. Brigadier-General Kyaw Hsan attacked Mr. Gambari saying that Gambari was ignorant of Burmese culture and history and a stooge of Western countries bent on interfering in the country's internal affairs. He went on to say that the junta will never allow outside interference to infringe on the sovereignty of the state.
In a recent speech, Burma 's Senior General Than Shwe said that the only path to a new political reality in the country is through the junta's own "roadmap." The regime's constitutional drafting process is widely regarded by Western governments as a sham since it excludes the National League for Democracy and most ethnic groups, and effectively entrenches the military's grip on power.
A political change process mediated by the UN thus appears to be remote. In the long run, change will come as the result of the ongoing campaign of civil disobedience as the Burmese people continue to defy the regime. It is the courage and will of the Burmese people themselves that are the impetus for a transition to democratic rule, and it is their efforts that must be supported and honoured internationally.
*ASEAN members are Brunei, Cambodia , Indonesia , Laos , Malaysia , Burma ( Myanmar ), the Philippines , Singapore , Thailand and Vietnam .
